On August 14, the Ministry of Economy published the forecast of economic and social development of Ukraine for 2021-2023, which was approved by the government on July 29, 2020.
“Starting from 2021, we expect further gradual acceleration of economic growth and the formation of a qualitative basis for sustainable economic development in the medium term, taking into account the implementation of major reforms and the preservation of financial stability,” Minister of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture Ihor Petrashko said.
According to the baseline scenario, the positive trend in economic development will be restored after significant losses caused by global coronavirus pandemic in 2020.
The government predicts 4.6% GDP growth in 2021, 4.3% in 2022 and 4.7% in 2023; consumer price index (December to December of the previous year) is expected to be 107.3% in 2021, 106.2% in 2022 and 105.3% in 2023; an increase in the real average monthly wages of employees – at the level of 12.1% in 2021, 6.0% in 2022 and 5.1% in 2023; unemployment rate at 9.2% in 2021, 8.5% in 2022 and 8.0% in 2023; growth of exports of goods and services at the level of 2.9% in 2021, with a subsequent increase in growth rates to 6.4% in 2022 and to 8.2% in 2023.
According to the minister, the tasks set by the president to increase the minimum wage were taken into account while finalizing the forecast for 2021-2023. Thus, the weighted average wage in 2021 is UAH 6,250, in 2022 – UAH 6,700, in 2023 – UAH 7,176.
This document will become basic for strategic decisions by the authorities. In addition, the three-year forecast allows to form medium-term benchmarks for business and investors, which will positively affect the gradual growth of the Ukrainian economy.
“Forecasted macro indicators will be the basis for the preparation of the draft State Budget of Ukraine for 2021,” Petrashko added.