Scientists of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine have published another forecast of the development of the coronavirus epidemic in Ukraine for September 11-18, prepared by the Working Group on Mathematical Modeling of Problems Related to the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus Epidemic in Ukraine, the press service of the Academy reports.
The basic forecast was provided by the Institute for Problems of Mathematical Machines and Systems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. Scientists on the academy’s website presented graphs and forecast tables.
According to forecasts, coronavirus statistics for Ukraine continues to show growth at an approximately constant pace. The reproductive number has a slight downward trend.
In addition, the projected average number of new infections on September 18 is 3,000 cases, 50 deaths per day.
“There is an increase in the proportion of patients (among all those infected), whose disease becomes known immediately upon death, as well as an increase in the proportion of elderly patients, which is associated with the mortality rate. An increase in the proportion of such patients may also be a sign of a worsening coverage of infection cases with testing in some regions,” the Academy said.
Also, the number of people who are recovering has begun to increase and is about 900 new per day.
“Although the rate of recovery is still much lower than the number of new infections. Probably a proportion of people, who actually recovered on self-isolation but were not officially discharged or did not undergo repeated PCR testing, is growing,” the message reads.
At the same time, the scientists calculated that, on average in Ukraine, the number of PCR tests spent on one new case detection has hardly changed, although a slight positive trend has been observed over the past week.
“The average number over the last week reached 9.1 tests for one new discovered case, which corresponds to a detection rate of 10.9%. However, this indicator is very different for the regions of Ukraine, the worst indicator in the Khmelnytsky region (4.1 PCR tests for one new detection), which corresponds to a detection rate of 24%. In Kyiv, the testing rate is twice the average for Ukraine (19 tests for detection), which is achieved largely due to the work of private laboratories. On September 9, when a record number of tests (29,708) were carried out in Ukraine, one third of them were carried out in Kyiv,” the message reads.
Read also: Ukraine reports 2,462 new coronavirus cases on past day.
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