Open source
The current strengthening of the Ukrainian hryvnia is short-term phenomenon: the National Bank (NBU) should consider the feasibility of the maximum fulfillment of the currency purchase plan to replenish international reserves in the first half of the year.
This was stated by the head of the Council of the National Bank, Bohdan Danylyshyn, on his Facebook page.
“There is a reason for calm only in the short term. Active export of Ukrainian agricultural products will take place in March-April, and its temporary (for several months) decline will begin in May,” said Danylyshyn.
According to him, non-residents’ investments in Ukrainian government bonds are also not long-term, and foreign investors are likely to start withdrawing funds from the Ukrainian market in the summer, thereby increasing the demand for foreign currency.
In addition, as noted by Danylyshyn, a slowdown in the global economy can lead to a decrease in demand for Ukrainian exports.
The factor of sustainability of the hryvnia in the second half is the successful continuation of cooperation with the International Monetary Fund and the receipt of related financing from other official creditors of Ukraine.
In addition, in summer, when Ukraine will pump gas into underground storage facilities, its cost may be lower than at the end of 2018 – early 2019, and less currency will be needed for the purchase.
“I would think about the expediency of maximally fulfilling the National Bank’s intervention plan for purchasing currency in international reserves in the H1 of the year, while the rate is acceptable,” added Danylyshyn.
As The Journalist reported, 335 Ukrainians declared over UAH 1 mln in revenue.
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