According to the results of a quarterly survey of business enterprises, conducted by the National Bank of Ukraine from May 4 to June 4, Ukrainian business worsened expectations regarding inflation slowdown over the next 12 months to 7% from 5.1% in the middle of the year and a depreciation of the hryvnia to UAH 28.28 per 1 US dollar from UAH 26.01 per 1 US dollar.
According to the National Bank, business was more restrained in expecting an increase in the production of goods and services in Ukraine in the next 12 months. Thus, almost 35.1% (10.4% a quarter earlier) of respondents expected a decrease in this indicator. The survey showed that since 2015 the business activity of Ukrainian enterprises fell to the lowest indicator of the business expectations index (IDI) for the next 12 months – to 90.8% from 110.5% a quarter earlier.
Decline in business activity is expected by enterprises of all types and areas of activity.
The report indicates that most companies do not expect changes in their financial and economic situation in the next 12 months, 22% of companies expect deterioration. Representatives of small and medium-sized businesses have more pessimistic assessments.
“Business expects a decrease in the total volume of product sales, including on the external market. In general, only the processing industry and trade respondents predict an increase in this indicator, and the lowest estimates – from construction and mining enterprises,” the message reads.
According to the survey, for the third quarter in a row, the number of companies that predict a decrease in the number of employees at their enterprises has increased. In particular, the number of enterprises planning to cut staff in the coming year increased to 26.3% from 21% a quarter earlier. The respondents are pessimistic in all types of economic activity, except for construction, where the number of employees is predicted to remain unchanged.
At the same time, the number of companies planning to raise salaries to their employees over the next 12 months has significantly decreased – to 36.5% from 63.4%.
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